In its new report, the International Monetary Fund presents the short and long-term effects of the pandemic on the global gross domestic product (GDP). According to the report, the main impact is on the supply chain.
The spreading of the Omicron variation led many countries to announce new mobility restrictions and protection measures. In addition to these restrictions, factors like high demand for consumer goods, congestion at ports, restrictions on shipping lines and a shortage of trucks have caused grave problems in the supply chain.
Specifically, the IMF in its report presented data indicating that maritime trade is the most damaged sector of the global supply chain with a 0.5-1.0% decline in economic growth and a 1.0% increase in inflation.
At the same time, the report projects a further decline in growth from 5.9% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. In contrast, inflation is projected to rise in 2022 and is expected to ease in 2023. Notably, inflation will increase by an average of 3.9% in advanced economies and 5.9% in emerging market and developing economies.
Finally, the report also predicts that the problems faced by the supply chain will gradually ease as the demand shifts from goods to services during 2022.
