The first signs of disruption in natural stone trade flows toward the Middle East are beginning to emerge following the outbreak of the conflict centered on Iran in late February 2026.
Official statistics published by China and Turkey for March 2026 show significant changes in processed marble exports to key Gulf markets compared with February 2026.
The timing of these shifts has attracted particular attention, as the Gulf region represents one of the world’s most important destinations for natural stone products and high-value construction materials.
Gulf markets remain strategically important
According to 2025 data, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq together accounted for 20.44% of the total export value and 22.73% of the total export volume of Turkey’s processed marble exports.
For China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar represented 21.81% of the total export value and 26.2% of the total export volume of Chinese processed marble exports.
These figures underline the international significance of any major shift affecting Gulf demand.
Sharp decline in Turkish exports
The most pronounced change appears in Turkey’s exports to Gulf countries between February and March 2026.
According to official data:
- Saudi Arabia: export value -63.23%, volume -62.00%
- United Arab Emirates: value -77.40%, volume -84.54%
- Qatar: value -79.74%, volume -74.81%
- Kuwait: value -82.19%, volume -82.89%
- Iraq: value -41.55%, volume -39.94%
- Bahrain and Oman: exports fell to zero in March compared with February.
The scale of the decline suggests more than a typical monthly fluctuation in trade activity.
Market participants point to increased geopolitical uncertainty, caution in new orders, rising insurance costs, and potential delays in logistics and maritime transportation as possible contributing factors.
China records higher volatility in trade flows
China’s export data present a more mixed picture, with significant differences across individual markets, although pressure is also evident in several major destinations.
Official figures show:
- Saudi Arabia: value -52.05%, volume -50.69%
- United Arab Emirates: value -71.64%, volume -76.31%
- Kuwait: value -99.37%, volume -98.34%
- Bahrain: value -92.75%, volume -94.52%
At the same time, markets such as Iraq and Oman recorded sharp increases in average export prices per ton. However, these movements appear to be linked mainly to limited shipment volumes or isolated high-value deliveries rather than a structural change in demand.
Overall, the data point more toward instability and disruption in regional trade flows than to a clear long-term shift in market fundamentals.
Market signals uncertainty rather than collapse
Despite the intensity of the changes, the available data do not yet support conclusions about a structural collapse in the Middle Eastern natural stone market.
They do, however, indicate a period of heightened geopolitical and commercial uncertainty, with impacts likely connected to:
- uncertainty in maritime transportation across the Persian Gulf,
- rising insurance risk,
- delays in logistics,
- adjustments in construction project planning,
- and increased caution among importers and construction groups.
Particular attention is being paid to the fact that these changes are occurring simultaneously across multiple Gulf markets, involving different exporters and appearing immediately after the beginning of the crisis.
Second-quarter data expected to be critical
Whether these developments represent a temporary market reaction or the beginning of a broader restructuring of regional trade flows is expected to become clearer during the second quarter of 2026.
If similar trends continue in the coming months, the international natural stone sector may face a new geopolitical reality in one of the world’s most important premium construction markets.
