The temporary shutdown of the United States federal government toward the end of summer 2025 acted as a catalyst for uncertainty in a market already undergoing adjustment. Delays in the release of critical data from the U.S. Census Bureau — particularly information on construction value and housing activity — hindered the assessment of demand for investment materials and affected the timing of this analysis. It also remains unclear to what extent functions directly linked to project flow, such as building permits, financing approvals, and certification processes, were affected — factors crucial for planning projects incorporating natural stones.
Macroeconomic Environment: Pressure, Not Collapse
In the first nine months of 2025, the U.S. economy showed signs of recovery, with GDP rising 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter — the highest performance in the past two years. However, this did not translate into uniform demand growth across all sectors. Overall growth for the year is estimated at 1.9%–2.0%, below initial expectations, due to public budget delays, persistent inflation, and high borrowing costs.
The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates in September, aiming to support economic activity without reigniting inflation (3.0% year-on-year, core PCE 2.8%). Despite relative stabilization, the market continues to operate cautiously, with direct consequences for the construction sector and, by extension, demand for natural stones.
Construction: Less Volume, More Selectivity
Overall construction activity in the U.S. declined in 2025, with building permits down -4.22%, projects under construction -14.04%, and completions -7.56%. This slowdown reflects a combination of factors: high interest rates, a shortage of skilled labor, rising material and construction costs (+10%–15%), and trade restrictions.
Yet, behind the overall picture, a critical differentiation emerges: an increase in permits for buildings of five or more units (+1.9%) versus a sharp drop in single-family homes (-9.9%). This shift is particularly relevant for natural stones, as higher-spec multi-family and mixed-use projects tend to incorporate materials with greater durability, aesthetic value, and longevity — characteristics that favor marble and quartz.
Natural Stones: A Mirror of Quality Restructuring
The trajectory of natural and ceramic material imports during the first nine months of 2025 clearly reflects a shift in demand. Despite the general slowdown in construction activity, high-value natural stones not only resist but strengthen.
Processed marble confirms its resilient character. Import value rose by 2.11%, reaching $946 million — the second-highest performance of the past decade — while quantities increased 4.07% to 830 thousand tons. The slight decrease in average price per ton (-1.88%) does not undermine the premium nature of the material but indicates absorption of higher volumes in a selective-demand environment.
Even more striking is the performance of processed quartz, which saw a 37.25% increase in value and 31.7% in volume, with the average price per ton rising further. Quartz establishes itself as a high-value material, chosen for high-spec projects due to durability, low maintenance, and aesthetic distinction.
By contrast, granite shows a clear structural decline, with value down -6.91% and volume -10.68% — the lowest performance in the last decade. The rise in average price per ton suggests the market now absorbs only higher-quality grades. Ceramic products remain relatively stable, serving mainly as large-scale material for public and commercial projects with fixed budgets.
This picture reflects a “value-over-volume” strategy: fewer projects, but with higher quality targeting and material selection that reduces total life-cycle costs.
Tariffs and Supply Chain: Reallocation in Favor of Quality
Developments in trade policy in 2025 acted as a catalyst for restructuring the natural stones market. Additional tariffs on key source countries (India, Brazil, China, Vietnam) led to forward orders in the first half and targeted sourcing in the third quarter, emphasizing reliability and supplier diversification.
Early September data show a sharp drop in imports from Brazil and China, while countries with more flexible or premium positioning appear to benefit. For marble specifically, these developments strengthen suppliers investing in quality, processing, and design.
Marble Suppliers: Concentration at the Top
Analysis of the main processed marble suppliers in the U.S. shows a clear concentration in the premium category. In 2025, Italy and Turkey accounted for almost two-thirds of import value, reaching historic highs. Italy benefits from its long-standing link with design and high-value projects, while Turkey upgrades its product mix and penetrates more demanding applications.
In contrast, China continues its decline, with significant drops in both value and quantity, reflecting reduced demand for lower-value products. India and Brazil are negatively affected by the new tariffs, while smaller but emerging suppliers — such as Vietnam, Portugal, and Namibia — reach historic highs, signaling diversification of origin in specialized categories.
Expectations and Psychology: Cautious Optimism with a Premium Focus
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index remained below 50 throughout 2025, reflecting ongoing pressure on the sector. Despite price reductions and incentives offered by builders, expectations for 2026 improved in the last quarter. Importantly, this optimism is linked mainly to higher-spec projects — precisely where natural stones, especially marble and quartz, retain a comparative advantage.
Conclusions
2025 is not a year of expansion for the U.S. construction market but a year of qualitative restructuring. In a high-cost, trade-restricted, and selectively investing environment, natural stones — especially marble — emerge as materials of strategic importance. Their durability, aesthetic superiority, and long-term value make them primary beneficiaries of the shift toward fewer but more demanding projects. This trend, reinforced by gradually declining interest rates, is expected to shape the market landscape over the next twelve months.
