China’s economy recorded a strong start in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP growth reaching 5%, exceeding market expectations and accelerating compared to the previous quarter. Growth was primarily driven by industrial production and exports, reaffirming the country’s continued reliance on manufacturing and external trade.
Behind this positive macroeconomic performance, however, significant structural imbalances remain evident. Domestic demand continues to lag, while consumption and investment remain weak. The widening gap between strong production capacity and fragile internal demand has become a defining feature of the Chinese economy, directly affecting the natural stone sector.
At the same time, geopolitical developments in the Middle East — particularly the conflict involving Iran — have emerged as a major external risk factor. Rising energy prices increased production and transportation costs, placing additional pressure on industrial activity and exports. Inflationary pressures generated by higher costs rather than stronger demand have further compressed corporate margins and weakened already fragile consumption.
Although China appears relatively resilient to direct energy disruptions, indirect effects are becoming increasingly visible. Slower global demand and growing uncertainty in international trade have already begun to affect export momentum, particularly toward the end of the quarter.
Construction Sector Remains the Main Constraint
The prolonged crisis in China’s real estate sector continues to represent the most significant limiting factor for the marble market. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China confirm the ongoing deterioration of the construction industry during the first quarter of 2026:
- New construction starts: -21.18%
- Completed construction projects: -26.18%
- Housing sales: -19.76%
- Real estate investment: -10.75%
These figures confirm that the weakness of the construction sector is no longer cyclical but structural. For decades, real estate development functioned as one of the primary drivers of demand for raw materials. Today, however, the sector remains in a prolonged adjustment phase, significantly reducing domestic demand for marble and granite.
Processed Marble Exports Become the Key Absorption Mechanism
Within this environment, exports of processed marble have become increasingly important in sustaining industrial activity. During the first quarter of 2026, exports of processed marble products increased by 6.15% in value and 29.55% in volume compared with the same period in 2025.
However, this growth was largely driven by a sharp decline in average export prices per ton (-18.06%), which fell to the third-lowest level of the past decade. The data indicate that China’s export strategy is now based primarily on maintaining volumes rather than increasing value.
Monthly data further reveal a weakening trend toward the end of the quarter. Between February and March 2026, exports declined by 17.2% in value and 14.29% in volume, coinciding with the escalation of the conflict involving Iran.
The largest losses were recorded in Middle Eastern markets such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as in the United States and selected Asian markets. These developments suggest that geopolitical disruptions are no longer affecting only logistics and transportation costs, but also global demand and project activity in key destination markets.
Raw Marble Imports Reflect a Market Under Pressure
Imports of raw marble provide the clearest indication of underlying demand conditions in the Chinese market. During the first quarter of 2026, imports recorded only marginal growth, increasing by 4.08% in value and 1.40% in volume.
At the same time, the average price per ton increased by 2.64%, reaching the highest level of the past decade. Nevertheless, both import value and volume remain significantly below 2018 levels, indicating that the market is operating under constrained conditions rather than entering a new growth cycle.
The increase in prices does not necessarily reflect higher-quality materials, but is also linked to higher energy and transportation costs. Meanwhile, the limited increase in imports suggests that Chinese companies remain cautious regarding inventory management and production expansion.
A New Supply Structure Is Emerging
China’s marble market now appears to be evolving toward a more diversified and multi-centered sourcing model.
Traditional suppliers such as Turkey, Greece, Iran, and Egypt continue to play an important role, although their relative position is gradually weakening. At the same time, countries such as India, Croatia, Namibia, and Brazil are strengthening their presence by covering specific segments of demand, either through cost competitiveness or product differentiation.
Italy continues to reinforce its position within the premium segment of the market, maintaining strong pricing power and stable demand for high-value materials.
The market is therefore no longer driven by a single demand structure, but by increasingly differentiated pricing and quality categories.
The New Price Segmentation of the Market
The category below USD 200 per ton remains the stable low-cost supply base of the market. Although volumes remain relatively stable, the increase in average prices indicates that further price compression is becoming increasingly difficult.
In contrast, the USD 200–300 category recorded the sharpest decline, with simultaneous decreases in both volume and price. This suggests that the traditional “mid-range” segment is gradually losing its strategic role within the market.
The USD 300–400 category is emerging as the new equilibrium zone of the market, concentrating significant volumes but under considerable pricing pressure. Greece’s transition into this category, together with the strengthening presence of Croatia and Brazil, has played a major role in this restructuring.
Meanwhile, the category above USD 400 per ton continues to function as the premium segment of the market, characterized by lower volumes but strong pricing autonomy. Italy remains the dominant supplier in this segment, confirming that demand for specialized, high-quality materials remains relatively price inelastic.
Outlook: From Demand Expansion to Flow Management
Overall, the first quarter of 2026 confirms that China’s marble market is no longer operating under a model driven by expanding domestic demand, but rather under a system focused on managing and reallocating flows.
The prolonged weakness of the construction sector limits the ability of the domestic market to absorb raw materials. As a result, exports of processed products have become the primary mechanism sustaining industrial activity.
At the same time, Chinese companies appear to be adopting increasingly aggressive pricing and international expansion strategies in order to preserve market share in an environment characterized by geopolitical uncertainty and intensifying competition.
This transition is reshaping not only China’s domestic market but also the broader structure of the global marble trade. China is gradually evolving from a market driven by continuously expanding raw material demand into a more selective, strategic, and multi-layered marketplace.
For supplier countries, competitiveness will increasingly depend not only on price and production capacity, but also on strategic positioning, differentiation, and the ability to adapt to a market that is becoming more complex, more competitive, and more volatile.
