Stonenews study on U.S. building activity, first half of 2025
Construction activity in the United States during the first half of 2025 unfolds within a landscape of shifting conditions, affecting both the total volume of construction and the types of housing and regions where demand is concentrated. Although at the national level there was a 2.9% overall decline in building permits compared to the same period in 2024, this figure varies significantly by housing type and geographic area.
The drop is almost entirely attributed to the decrease in single-family homes (−5.4%), as higher borrowing costs, increased construction prices, and difficulties in homeownership continue to restrain demand. In contrast, multifamily buildings with five or more units grew by 1.9%, while construction in this category rose even further (+2.2%). Meanwhile, duplexes (+7.1%) and small multifamily buildings (+1.8%) confirm the ongoing shift toward more flexible and affordable housing models, often aimed at the rental or investment market.
Leading States and Emerging Balances
Texas, Florida, and California remain the undisputed leaders of U.S. construction, together accounting for more than half of all building permits nationwide. Despite a slight slowdown compared to 2024 (−0.8%, −0.6%, and −2.5%, respectively), they continue to lead activity, maintaining a high share of multifamily developments.
The composition of the top ten, however, has shifted: New York (−37.15%) and New Jersey (−12.67%) dropped out of the leading group, replaced by Tennessee and Ohio. Ohio stands out with an impressive +15.0% increase, driven primarily by a surge in 5+ unit multifamily projects (+37.8%).
Texas continues to dominate the single-family (1-unit) market, holding a 69.6% share, while Florida and California lead in multifamily housing, with shares of 34.7% and 35.9%, respectively. Conversely, South Carolina remains the most single-family-oriented state (85.4% of permits), while Virginia and Ohio show a growing concentration of multifamily developments, reflecting strong urbanization trends and evolving housing profiles.
A Shift in the Geography of Growth
The analysis reveals a clear decentralization of construction activity. Major metropolitan areas show stagnation or decline, while smaller, regional markets record notable increases. Areas such as Hilton Head (South Carolina), Statesboro (Georgia), Boone (North Carolina), and Fond du Lac (Wisconsin) report strong growth in permits, driven by a combination of factors: rising rental demand, local economic vitality, university and tourism-related populations, and lower land and construction costs.
The “Construction–Economy Alignment” Index
As part of the Stonenews study, a new “construction–economy alignment” index was developed, linking building activity to key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, personal income, population, and employment. This index identifies states with sustainable development dynamics and strong investment potential.
Oklahoma, Alaska, Indiana, Iowa, and West Virginia stand out for combining low costs, growing demand, and stable economic fundamentals. In smaller metro areas such as Guymon, Ada, Duncan, and Miami (Oklahoma), building permits surged by more than 200%, highlighting dynamic, emerging local markets.
New Housing Patterns and Investment Opportunities
The transformation concerns not only the volume but also the nature of demand. The shift toward smaller multifamily units and intermediate housing forms reflects the rise of small and mid-scale investors and the development of local regeneration initiatives. Meanwhile, Midwest states continue to show solid interest in single-family homes, demonstrating that homeownership remains a strong aspiration in regions with affordable land and stable populations.
Overall, construction activity is no longer shaped solely by market forces but increasingly mirrors broader socio-economic transformations—demographic shifts, regional development, and changing living patterns.
Conclusion
The first half of 2025 marks a transitional phase for the U.S. construction sector. Traditional urban growth is slowing, giving way to new regional hubs, while single-family housing is gradually being replaced by more complex and flexible housing forms.
For builders, investors, and financial institutions, this new geographic and structural realignment represents not only a challenge but also an opportunity for strategic repositioning—geographically, structurally, and financially—within a market that continues to offer strong development prospects despite its ongoing transformation.
This analysis is based on a Stonenews study of U.S. construction activity in the first half of 2025. Those who wish to access more detailed data, charts, or customized analyses can contact info@stonenews.eu.
